中国经济新“地理梯度”警示
China new economy " geographical gradient " warning
截至2012年8月初，中国大陆各个省份、自治区和直辖市的GDP增长速度排名已经发布完成，按照可比价格计算，北京、上海、浙江和广东增速分别为7.2%、7.2%、7.4%、7.4%，成为仅有的四个低于8%增速的省市；而重庆、贵州、四川、陕西的增速则分别达到14.0%、14.0%、13.0%、13.0%，均位居全国各省份的前五名；中部地区的增速则多数位居中间——中国经济增速已经呈现出明显的西高、东低、中平均的“地理梯度”。
As of 2012 8 at the beginning of the month, China mainland in various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government, the GDP growth rate rank has been released, according to comparable prices, Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Guangdong rate 7.2% respectively, 7.2%, 7.4%, 7.4%, one of only four less than 8% growth, Guizhou, and Chongqing provinces; Sichuan, Shaanxi's growth rate is achieved respectively 14%, 14%, 13%, 13%, ranked first in the country provinces before five; the central region of the growth is most in the middle -- China's economic growth has obvious high and low in the East, West, mean " geographical gradient ".
　　如果我们进行以下简单的对比，20年前，亦即上世纪90年代初市场经济发端的时候，东部地区因受益于改革开放、轻工制造业大发展一直领跑，东部地区增速往往在10%～15%这个区间的上限发展，远高于中西部，经济上的“地理梯度”是东高西低；而在10年前，随着西部大开发战略的推进，以及重工业的发展，东中西部的增速一度比较接近，全国也保持了10%左右的GDP增速。
If we carry out the following simple contrast, 20 years ago, which in the early 90 century on the market economy beginning time, area of the eastpart part due to benefit from the reform and opening up, light manufacturing industry development all the way East, often speeding in 10% ～15% the range development, far higher than the western, the economic " geographical gradient " East High and low in the West; and in 10 years ago, with the implementation of west development strategy, as well as the development of heavy industry, east the growth was relatively close, countrywide also maintained about 10% GDP growth.
　　关于这些现象，已经有不少学者从各个维度进行过解读，我希望从“经济红利”的角度对其进行简要的再解析。
With regard to these phenomena, there have been many scholars from various dimensions of understanding, I hope that from " economic dividend " angle carries on the brief analysis.
　　经济的“地理梯度”源自各种红利
The economic " geographical gradient " from various bonus
　　20世纪80到90年代，东部地区特别是江、浙、粤、沪地区的经济发展，主要受益于三大红利：市场化政策、地理优势和中国整体的人口红利。因为中国在漫长的转轨过程中，优先给予广东、上海等地若干先行先试的政策，这也导致人才、资金优先向这些地区流动，这是一个先导性的驱动力。在这个驱动因子作用下，这些地区充分利用了自身拥有的地理位置优势，以出口为导向，盘活了低端和中端制造业，也让全国的大量农村富余劳动力趋之若鹜——从而让三者形成了合力，最终促使当地经济长达30年的持续发展。
In twentieth Century 80 to 90 time, area of the eastpart part of river, short for Zhejiang Province in particular, Guangdong, Shanghai region economy development, the main benefit from three big dividends: market-oriented policies, geographical advantage and China's overall population dividend. Because China is in long shunt process, giving priority to Guangdong, Shanghai, a number of pilot policy, which also causes the personnel, funding priorities to flow in these regions, it is a leading driving force. In the driving factor, the area makes full use of its own geographical advantages, in order to export oriented, invigorated the low-end and mid-range manufacturing industry, also let the scramble for a large number of rural surplus labor -- so that the three form resultant force, eventually make the local economy for up to 30 years of sustained development.
　　实际上，到了2000年前后，全国各地的市场化格局已经形成，加上西部大开发战略的作用，东部相对于中西部的政策红利已经不明显了。此时，为什么东部地区依然具有很强的磁场效应？这里面涉及到一个先发优势红利问题。历经十几年的发展，东部的很多地区都形成了非常好的产业聚集，比如东莞的IT制造、绍兴的纺织制造等等，因此从效率上也仍然占据着很大的优势，因此，西部大开发提出10来年中，中西部增长仍然没有显著超越东部，反倒是东部地区的生产日益从轻工业扩散到重工业，保持了较为均匀的快速跑——从增长质量上，西部的快速增长主要建立在资源品、投资等基础上，仍然是逊于东部的。
In fact, before and after the 2000, throughout the marketing pattern has been formed, with western big development strategy role relative to the Midwest, eastern part of dividend policy has not obvious. At this time, why the east still has very strong magnetic field effect? This involves a first-mover advantage dividend. After ten years of development, the eastpart part in many parts of the formation of a very good industrial aggregation, such as Dongguan's IT manufacturing, Shaoxing's textile manufacturing and so on, from the efficiency is also still holds a great advantage, therefore, western big development put forward in 10 the coming year, Midwest growth still did not significantly beyond the eastern, but is eastern region of production increasingly lighter industrial diffusion to heavy industry, maintain a relatively quick run -- from growth quality, the rapid growth is based on resources, investment basis, is still inferior to the east.
　　但是，历史总是在悄然变化。2008年前后，即便没有金融危机，这种经济地理格局也自然会发生重要的变化。因为，中国的人口红利正在快速退潮，东部地区的制造业再也不能10年不加工资了，东部的政策红利相比西部来说已经开始变得更少、而不是更多，原来产业集群形成的效率优势也不能无限提高……于是，我们看到中部和西部地区的增长并非突然变快，而是东部地区“跑不动”了。
However, history is always changed in. 2008 around, even if no financial crisis, the economic geography pattern also occurs naturally important changes. Because, Chinese demographic dividend is fast tide, area of the eastpart part manufacturing industry can not 10 years without pay, Eastern western dividend policy compared it has become less, not more, the original industrial cluster formation efficiency advantage cannot be improved indefinitely ... ... Then, we see the central and western areas of growth is not a sudden change quickly, but the eastern region " run ".
　　新的增长梯度形成了。
New growth gradient formation.
　　新增长红利需回归本源
New growth dividend need to return to the beginning
　　但是，新的梯度结构却与原来的梯度结构有重要不同：东高西低时代，西部低，意味着潜力，生产力随时可以从东部扩散过去；而西高东低时代，实际上意味着东部地区的生产力向上增长更为乏力，而几年后中西部地区也必然面临类似挑战。
However, the new gradient structure but with the original gradient structure has important differences: East West High low era, western low, imply potential, productivity can be readily obtained from east past; and East West High low era, actually means the eastern region productivity to grow more lack of power, and after a few years in the Midwest will also face similar challenges.
　　换言之，过去的快速增长源自对受压制生产力的释放，而目前我们看不到多少受压制的生产力——即便对于很多民营企业来说，特别是在科技创新方面，也并没有蕴含多少潜在的生产力。在这种情况下，打破现有的一些垄断行业壁垒，固然可以有所帮助，但是，那也不过是一次性的短期收益和财富的再分配，其价值和效果恐怕比不上80年代初的个体潮、90年代初的下海潮、2000年代初的科技潮……
In other words, the rapid growth of the past from the suppressed productivity release, and we couldn't see how much suppressed productivity -- even for many private enterprises, especially in the respect of innovation of science and technology, also did not contain a number of potential productivity. In this case, to break the existing industry of a few forestall barriers, although can be helpful, however, it was only a one-off short-term gains and the redistribution of wealth, the value and the effect that is less than 80 in the early 1990s individual tide, the beginning of the 90's tidal generation, 2000 beginning of the tide of science and technology ... ...
　　这时候，当我们挤去各个省份的增长水分看，中国二季度GDP同比增长7.6%，其中出口顺差带来的红利已经极少，投资仍然占据半数、处于偏高水平。假定让投资增速回归到2倍于GDP的正常水平，未来出口趋于均衡的情况下，中国目前的潜在增长速度可能就是6～7%，步入中速增长阶段。
At this time, when we squeeze in various provinces in the growth of water, China's two quarter GDP grew 7.6%, wherein the export surplus of dividends have been minimal, investment still occupy the half, at high level. Suppose the growth rate of investment return to 2 times normal levels of GDP, the future export tends to balance the situation, China 's potential growth rate is 6～ 7%, enter middling speed growth stage.
　　因此，原有的人口红利消失，你不可能因此去鼓励生2胎甚至多胎，这样由人口基数带来的GDP数字性增长只会对人均生活水平进一步稀释；当政策红利日趋减少的情况下，你不能期盼有比80年代改革开放、90年代市场化、2000年后城市化和地产市场化更大的改革，只能是小修小补；当中国的高储蓄率已经被转化为高投资率，以至于中国的综合债务水平已经到达一个危险水位的时候，你也不能期待中国继续给出更高的投资率，况且这些储蓄本身也是为了未来老龄化储备的；当中国的汇率日渐市场化、人力成本日渐提高的时候，我们也无法继续依靠顺差进一步拉动GDP……
Therefore, the original population bonus disappears, you may not be so to encourage 2 births and multiple births, so the population brought GDP digital growth will only on per capita living further dilution; when the dividend policy is increasingly reduced, you can't expect more than 80 time reforming and opening, market, 90 time after 2000 the City and estate market a greater reform, only minor repairs; when China 's high savings rate has been transformed into a high investment rate, so that China's comprehensive level of debt has reached a dangerous level of the time, you wouldn't expect China to continue to give the higher investment rate, and these savings itself to future aging reserve; when China's exchange rate is commercialized, the human cost of the rising of the time, we also cannot continue to rely on further boosting GDP surplus ... ...
　　那么，中国的经济改革动力只能回归到经济增长的本源：通过挖掘人力资源潜力提升生产力，即教育；通过科技提高生产力，即研发和管理——这些对中国也并非是新红利，但是，却可能是必须的、需要更大投入的可行性选择。
So, the reform of China's economic power can only return to the source of economic growth: through mining the potential of human resources to enhance productivity, i.e. education; through technology to increase productivity, namely the development and management of China -- these are not new bonus, however, may be necessary, require greater investment feasibility selection.