中国式营销危机的集体爆发
China marketing crisis collective eruption
新一轮的库存危机，“受灾”面积之大，超乎想象。不像以往，库存只是普通企业的问题，如今，优秀企业的问题更严重；不仅仅国内企业库存高企，跨国品牌也同样中招。在服装行业，反而是规模很小的散货品牌问题较小。
A new round of inventory crisis, " stricken " large area, beyond imagination. Unlike the past, inventory is a common business problems, nowadays, outstanding enterprises more severe problems; not only domestic enterprises high inventory, multinational brands also in action. In the garment industry, it is of small scale bulk brand was less of a problem.
　　因此，此轮库存危机不再仅仅是战术层面的问题，已经上升为企业战略层面的问题，甚至预示着中国经营环境的巨大改变和企业经营模式的巨大调整，远远超出了解决库存问题的范畴。
Therefore, the inventory crisis is no longer just a tactical question, has given rise to strategic level, and indicates that Chinese business environment changes and enterprise business model huge adjustment, far beyond the category of solve the inventory problem.
　　环境剧变，而你压货依旧
Environmental changes, and you still pressed
　　我们首先为库存危机定性，看看是什么原因导致了此轮大面积的库存危机。
We first inventory crisis qualitative, have a look what is the reason for this round of large inventory crisis.
　　此轮库存危机是中国经济增长方式的重大转变的结果。中国每年10%左右的GDP增长速度，成长性行业20%左右的增长速度，成长性企业30%～50%的增长速度，这样的增长速度，再多的过量库存也能通过未来的增长消化掉。
This round of stock crisis is Chinese economy growth way significant transformation of the results. China around 10% annual GDP growth rate, the growth of industry around 20% growth rate, growth of enterprises from 30% to 50% of the speed of growth, this growth rate, the more excess inventory or by future growth digest.
　　中国过去的增长方式，决定了企业通过库存压力促进市场扩张的经营模式。中国最常用的一个营销术语“压货”，就代表了这种经营思维。
China's past growth way, decided the enterprise through the inventory pressure promoting market expansion mode of operation. China is the most commonly used a marketing term " pressed ", on behalf of the business thinking.
　　自2012年开始，连续多年的“保八”增长结束，中国经济开始告别高增长模式，进入常规增长模式，中国经济的成熟度大大提高。
Since 2012, successive and old " and eight " growth ends, Chinese economy began to bid farewell to high growth pattern, into a conventional pattern of growth, China's economic maturity greatly improved.
　　但是，多数企业的营销模式并未随着国家经济增长模式的改变而变化，企业营销模式与国家增长模式的冲突，必然导致此轮库存高企的危机。
However, the majority of enterprise's marketing pattern is not as national economy growth pattern change, the enterprise marketing mode and national growth patterns of conflict, will inevitably lead to the high inventory crisis.
　　并且，越是过去经营增长速度快的企业，库存危机越严重。反倒是过去经营相对困难的中小企业，因为对未来的信心相对不足，存货量不大，反而可能躲过了本轮库存危机。
And, the last operating fast growth business, inventory crisis more and more serious. It is used to operate the relative difficulty of small and medium-sized enterprises, because of the relative lack of confidence in the future, the inventory is not big, but may have escaped the epicycle stock crisis.
　　除了少数行业外，中国多数行业已经或正在走向成熟，产业集中度已经大大提高。在国家经济形势向好的时候，或许增长速度相对较高；当国家经济下行时，现在的问题不能通过未来的增长予以消化，问题就会集中爆发。
Apart from a few industries, most of China's industries have been or are being mature, industry concentration has increased greatly. In the national economic situation to good time, maybe the growth rate is relatively high; when the national economic downturn, the problem now is not the future growth digest, problems will be focused on the outbreak of.
　　除了经济增长方式的转变之外，自2011年开始的经济下行有一定的隐蔽性，使得很多企业误判形势而疏于防范。
In addition to the transformation of economic growth mode, since the beginning of 2011, the economic downturn is covert, makes a lot of enterprises to misjudge the situation and neglect prevention.
　　2011年下半年，中国经济已经进入了下行通道，但作为宏观经济的主要指标GDP却并没有如实反映，CPI的高企更给人以假象，整个社会营造的氛围仍然是经济形势向好。直至2012年5月经济极速下滑才惊醒梦中人。此时，季节性较强的行业已经经历了多轮生产和经营周期，库存已经形成了多季节积累。
The second half of 2011, Chinese economy has entered into the downlink channel, but as the main macro-economic indicators GDP but did not reflect, CPI high more give a false impression, the social atmosphere is still the economic situation to good. Until 2012 May economic rapid decline was awakened people. At this time, seasonal strong industry has experienced several rounds of production and operating cycle, inventory has formed a number of seasonal accumulation.
　　2008年，由于受到美国金融危机影响的经济下行属于“急性病”，经济曲线呈V字形，国家和企业有高度警惕性，应变速度很快。此轮经济下行属于“慢性病”，初期感觉不明显，后期感觉无能为力，典型的温水煮青蛙。
In 2008, due to the influence of American financial crisis economic downlink belongs to " acute disease", economic curve shape of V, countries and companies have a high degree of vigilance, strain speed. This round of economic downlink belongs to " chronic disease ", the initial feeling is not obvious, the late feel incapable of action, typical of the boiling frog.
　　服装和家电等行业之所以成为此轮库存危机的重灾区，就在于它有较强的季节性。
Clothing and home appliances and other industries has become this round of stock crisis-stricken area, lies in its strong seasonal.
　　以服装为例，2011年之前，虽然库存过量普遍存在，但库存危机只是少数企业的问题。2011年夏季库存过量时，企业在宏观形势向好的氛围之下，普遍认为是企业自身的经营出了问题。当秋季服装库存严重过量时，冬季和春季订单已经下达，埋下了2012年库存过量的种子。服装行业有人甚至说“库存可以卖3年”，即使有夸大的成分，至少也说明了问题的严重性。
Clothing as an example, before 2011, although the excess inventory exists generally, but the inventory crisis are just a few of the problem of the enterprise. 2011 summer excess inventory, enterprises in the macroeconomic situation to good atmosphere, generally considered to be their own operating out of the question. When autumn clothing inventory serious excessive, winter and spring orders have been issued, buried 2012 inventory excess seeds. Apparel industry has even said that " stock can be sold for 3 years ", even if is hyperbole, at least also explained the seriousness of the problem.
　　其实，如果认真分析经济运行的先行指标，如PMI（采购经理人指数）、PPI（生产者物价指数），这些指标早已为企业敲响了警钟。可惜，多数企业已经习惯于高成长的经济环境，对经济运行的细化分析不够重视。
In fact, if careful analysis of economic indicators, such as PMI ( PMI ), PPI ( PPI ), these indicators that have long been a wake-up call for enterprises. Unfortunately, most enterprises have accustomed to the high growth of the economic environment, the economic operation of the detailed analysis of not paying enough attention.
　　长渠道里的存货
Long channel in stock
　　除了宏观因素之外，本轮库存危机的起因还包括中国企业的渠道模式。
In addition to the macroscopic factors, the current inventory crisis also includes Chinese enterprise channel model.
　　中国的渠道链条普遍较长，渠道链条越长，渠道“隐藏”的库存量越大。这些渠道库存，往往已经列出企业的销售业绩。企业的压货模式与渠道模式，决定了当需求萎缩时，不说厂家的库存，仅仅渠道库存就足够市场消化相当长的时间。由于渠道库存有相当大的隐蔽性，当渠道库存突然涌向终端并显性化时，厂家往往相当吃惊。
China Channel chain is generally longer, longer channel channel chain, " hidden " inventory more. These channel inventory, often have listed the sale outstanding achievement of the enterprise. The enterprise presses goods mode and channel mode, determines when demand atrophy, say manufacturers of inventory, stock market digest only channel is sufficient for a long time. Because the channel inventory has quite big concealment, when the channel inventory suddenly to terminal and dominance, manufacturers often quite surprised.
　　如何管理渠道库存，如何让渠道库存从灰色状态变成阳光下的库存，这是营销精细化管理必然解决的问题。
How to manage channel inventory, how to make the channel inventory from the grey state into the sun 's inventory, which is fine sales management must solve the problem.
　　此外，企业对近几年消费者收入和消费结构变化的研究不足，因而对有些行业需求锐减心理准备不足。
In addition, enterprises in recent years the consumer income and consumption structure change research, thus to some industry needs reduced to lack of psychological preparation.
　　近几年，工资性收入增长很快，给社会一种假象，以为消费者的消费能力提高了。工资性收入虽然增长了，但消费者的刚性支出却增加了（如房租、房贷、教育），可自由支配收入在下降。在经济下行、收入下降时，为了保证刚性支出，非刚性消费领域的支出下降幅度远远超过宏观经济指标所能反映的程度，确实让多数企业措手不及。
In recent years, the wage income growth is very rapid, to the society of an illusion, think consumer ability. Although the growth of the wage income, but consumers rigid defray is increased (such as rent, mortgage, education ), disposable income in the fall. In an economic downturn, declining income, in order to ensure that the rigid defray, non-rigid consumer spending decreased much more than macroeconomic index can reflect the degree to be taken by surprise, really let the majority of enterprises.
　　库存危机是营销危机的副产品，把此轮库存危机的责任推向宏观经济形势是不负责任的。企业对宏观经济反应的迟钝，说明企业已经丧失了营销最基本的要求——环境适应性。
Inventory crisis marketing crisis byproduct, the wheel inventory crisis of the responsibility to the macroscopical economic situation is irresponsible. Enterprises on the macroeconomic response retardation, explained that the enterprise has lost the most basic requirements of marketing -- environmental adaptability.
　　如果说这只是个别企业的问题，优胜劣汰机制可能发挥作用；如果说这只是个别行业的问题，行业成熟度可能是合适的托词。众多行业普遍发生库存危机，预示着中国式营销的集体问题。
If this is just the problems of individual enterprises, the survival of the fittest mechanisms may play a role; if it is only an individual industry, industry maturity may be appropriate. Numerous industry widespread occurrence inventory crisis, adumbrative China Marketing collective problems.
　　库存作为营销活动的副产品，解决库存问题不能仅仅盯住副产品，要从营销主体入手，从根本上解决问题。
Inventory as the marketing activities of the by-products, solve the inventory problem not only on the product, from the marketing main body proceed with, from the fundamental solution to the problem.
中国式营销危机的集体爆发
China marketing crisis collective eruption