张一鸣：不要随便说all in

Zhang Yiming: don't say all in casually

All-in有时候是偷懒。

All in is sometimes lazy.

我特别想说：不依赖捷径，少用杠杆。

I particularly want to say: don't rely on shortcuts, use less leverage.

举两个例子。

Take two examples.

很多人说，做业务要all-in，一下子结束战斗。我自己觉得，随便说all-in的团队有很大问题。

A lot of people say that doing business requires all in, ending the battle all at once. In my opinion, the all in team has a big problem.

在我看来，all-in有时候是一种偷懒。如果你想得很清楚了，战略应该all-in，那没有问题。

In my opinion, all in is sometimes a kind of laziness. If you think clearly that strategy should be all in, that's no problem.

但我的感受是，很多时候，all-in往往只是代表了「我不想再想了，就这样吧，行就行，赌一把吧」的意思。

But my feeling is that most of the time, all in just means "I don't want to think about it any more. That's it. All right. Let's gamble.".

经过缜密的思考与论证后的all-in，和简单想了想就觉得应该all-in，是有非常大区别的。

After careful thinking and argumentation, there is a big difference between all in and simply thinking that it should be all in.

几乎没有任何一个人，能在草率的all-in下成功。

Almost no one can succeed in a hasty all in.

还有一种走捷径的方式是：对事物的过度抽象，对方法论的过度追求。

There is also a shortcut: the excessive abstraction of things, the excessive pursuit of methodology.

这也非常不好。

It's also very bad.

我自己的感受是，方法论其实并没有那么有用，大部分情况下，甚至可能是没什么用的。

My own feeling is that methodology is actually not so useful, in most cases, it may even be useless.

因为你对一个事情抽象，相当于思维上加杠杆。

Because you abstract a thing, which is equivalent to adding leverage to your thinking.

这个也是我说，为什么不能随便all-in的原因。因为一旦这个杠杆加错，通常是「失之毫厘，谬以千里」。

This is also the reason why I can't just all in. This is because once this lever is added wrong, it is usually "a little bit missed, a thousand miles wrong".

其实这种现象有一个对应的说法，叫作「理性的自负」，这也是人的ego。

In fact, there is a corresponding saying for this phenomenon, which is called "rational conceit", which is also human ego.

因为知识有限性是非常明显的，很多是非结构化的知识，过度地使用概念其实是无助于理解的。

Because the limitation of knowledge is very obvious, a lot of knowledge is unstructured, excessive use of concepts is actually not helpful to understand.

避免过度抽象使用方法，也是一种平常心。

It's also a kind of common sense to avoid over abstract methods.

我经常在各种讨论中跟同事交流，don’t rush to conclusion，不要匆忙下结论，不要太容易说「说白了就是这样」。

I often communicate with my colleagues in various discussions. Don't rush to a conclusion. Don't be too easy to say, "that's it.".

我们在做结论的时候，要猜想其他可能，保持一个开放的心态。

When we make a conclusion, we should guess other possibilities and keep an open mind.

使用越来越抽象和高级的词汇，也是一种寻求方法论的倾向，也是偷懒的一种表现。

Using more and more abstract and advanced words is also a tendency to seek methodology and a manifestation of laziness.

给大家念一段我用咱们双月会材料里摘出来的词，拼凑出来的一段话：

I'd like to read you a piece of words that I put together from the materials of our bimonthly meeting

过去我们主要依靠推荐技术赋予的信息分发能力、跨端联动抖头西、分多个产品自研，实现深度共建，形成组合拳，打造内容生态闭环，以此赋能客户用户创造价值。未来我们要增加横向不同场景价值，延长服务链路。同时纵深满足用户需求，借助人类年龄的自然势能，在小中青多个年龄用户深度渗透。另外通过加强基建投入，多种阵地相关产品完善经营价值链路，建立对外用户持久影响力。

In the past, we mainly relied on the information distribution ability given by recommendation technology, cross end linkage, and self-development of multiple products to achieve in-depth co construction, form a combination fist, and create a content ecological closed loop, so as to enable customers to create value. In the future, we need to increase the value of different scenarios horizontally and extend the service link. At the same time, it meets the needs of users in depth, and penetrates in depth among young, middle-aged and multiple age users with the help of the natural potential energy of human age. In addition, through strengthening infrastructure investment, a variety of positions related products, improve the business value link, and establish a lasting influence on external users.

读完我相信很多人根本不知道这段话在说什么。

After reading it, I believe many people have no idea what this passage is about.

实际上，我们的很多重要决策并不需要那么复杂的描述。

In fact, many of our important decisions don't need to be described in that complicated way.

很多重要的判断是通过对用户和事实的观察做出的，保持敏感的同理心和开阔的想象力很重要。

Many important judgments are made through the observation of users and facts. It is important to maintain sensitive empathy and open imagination.

我经常发现，我们产品中有反直觉的设计。我也经常在想，为什么会做出一些反直觉的设计。

I often find that there are counterintuitive designs in our products. I often wonder why some counter intuitive designs are made.

如果你不带方法论，只要非常放松使用产品，就会发现，这地方不太对。

If you don't bring methodology, as long as you are very relaxed in using products, you will find that this place is not quite right.

是不是因为我们太想证明某个想法，太固执于某个概念，所以在产品设计中犯下错误？

Is it because we want to prove a certain idea too much and are too stubborn to a certain concept, so we make mistakes in product design?

很多时候，小朋友都能发现设计中有违直觉的部分，为什么饱读各种产品理念分析文档的产品经理发现不了？是不是太想验证某个想法或者太受某个教条概念所影响？

Most of the time, children can find that there is something against intuition in the design. Why can't product managers who read all kinds of product concept analysis documents find it? Are you too eager to test an idea or too influenced by a dogmatic concept?

有三个产品，它们都做得很好，

There are three products, all of which are well done,

一个是Google Earth，我经常用它来学地理，这个产品很伟大但不赚钱。

One is Google Earth, which I often use to learn geography. This product is great, but it doesn't make money.

Scratch，儿童编程，赚不赚钱我不知道，但也很伟大。

Scratch, children's programming, making money or not, I don't know, but it's also great.

Roblox，一种UGC的沙盒游戏，跟我们平时说的游戏非常不一样。

Roblox, a sandbox game of UGC, is very different from what we usually say.

这些产品都有什么特点呢？

What are the characteristics of these products?

第一要很有想象力。

First, be imaginative.

第二，要很有耐心，做很长时间。

Second, be patient and do it for a long time.

我在想，我们公司能不能做出类似的产品。

I wonder if our company can make similar products.

我不是说做得慢就好。快慢由事情本身决定。

I don't mean slow. It's up to the matter.

但是如果这个事情需要非常有想象力，你才做了两年，就有很多人就说，哎呀这个不行，那时外界的强烈预期会不会影响我们继续投入。

However, if you need to be very imaginative, after only two years, many people will say, "Oh, this is not good. Will the strong expectations of the outside world affect our continued investment?".

有一次讨论业务竞争，我印象深刻，有一个团队说，哎呀对手增长又快了，我们赶紧做点什么。

Once, I was impressed when I discussed business competition. A team said, "Oh, the competitors are growing fast again. Let's do something quickly.".

我说，原来比对手落后的时候，我们想很多的方法来提高，但没有心理包袱，大胆地想象大胆地行动。

I said that when we were lagging behind our rivals, we thought of many ways to improve, but without psychological burden, we boldly imagined and acted.

现在，我们比对手领先了，反而做不到平常心，太怕失败，动作可能变形。

Now, we are ahead of our rivals, but we can't be normal. We are too afraid of failure and our movements may be distorted.

我问他，你打游戏吗？打游戏有没有遇到过这种情况，某个游戏要过100关，你打到99关的时候，就容易手抖。

I asked him, do you play games? Have you ever met this situation in playing a game? If you want to pass 100 levels in a game, you will easily shake your hands when you reach 99 levels.

因为你想着，「我这好不容易到99关了，我一定不能犯错」，然后你一般就会挂了。

Because you think, "I've finally reached the 99 level. I must not make mistakes." then you usually hang up.